I have been playing poker for about seven years. I have seen a couple of small heaters where the mythical 'God Mode' was engaged and I have seen some pretty ridiculous bad runs. I get the concept of variance better than most. This has still not prepared be for the Beast from Hell that has been 2012. Now in numbers terms some of the mid to high stakes monsters out there will probably laugh. Being a small timer this is not like ScottyStarburst dropping $20,000 in a month or the continuing FML Downswing Adventures of James Sudworth. It has though effectively sent me busto. Up until the last week there has always been a spark of hope, a possible get out of jail free card on the horizon. Sunday pretty much killed all of that.
The biggest problem is that I just cannot win. If I get my chips in good I lose. If I get into a flip I lose. If I put my chips in bad I lose. The only run good I have found has come in the $5 Atlantis Deep Stack on PKR which I have won twice for a pittance each time. I am used to binking over $1,000 in a single tournament on a monthly basis. I haven't managed a score over that yet in 2012. I have seen bad patches of tournament run bad before but nothing on this scale. The sheer weight of bad beats and extreme coolers has been depressing beyond belief. Worst of all have been the moments of hope cruelly snatched away. In the third week of March I actually avoided the extreme suck outs and managed three final tables. Top prizes in these ranged between $900 and $3,000. In all three I went in with about the second biggest chip stack and in all three I lost a huge coinflip early on and never recovered. Finishing 9th in a tournament you have been soul crushing for the previous two hours is pretty demoralising.
Last month I final tabled the PKR Open and got smashed out in 4th by a donkey on an insane card rush. This month I came 5th after shipping A Q into another donkey on a card rush. IPOPS Five encapsulated everything about this run. I got deep through some really good play involving some great trapping and restealing. I got wrecked after a guy open ships 20 big blinds with Jacks into my pocket aces. Obviously I flop top set and he makes a runner, runner straight. I recovered a little but then lost all but one and a half big blinds in a coin flip that I lost on the river card. I actually more than tripled through but then lost my last chips with A 4. The small blind flatted my shove and the big blind kindly iso-jammed with K 10o. I lost. I don't think my chips went in badly once all tournament and I went out just before the money. That week I flopped sets of aces three times on dry flops and lost all three on the river after the chips went in on the flop or preflop.
The Friday night PKR Primetime has been a particular favourite. Three times this year I have been into the money with a big chip stack and three times I have seen it blown up in ridiculous fashion. In my favourite one I soul owned the eventual winner twice. If I make a single mistake in a tournament this year I get destroyed. It must be nice to make errors and still get to win $2,800. In fairness the first hand is something of a cooler.
Table #44918676 - Tournament #25797053 Table #6
Starting Hand #2080551262
Start time of hand: 12 May 2012 00:17:24
Last Hand #2080550390
Game Type: HOLD'EM
Limit Type: NO LIMIT
Table Type: TOURNAMENT
Money Type: TOURNAMENT CHIPS
Blinds are now 3,000 / 6,000
Button is at seat 4
Seat 1: LockeLamora - 205,361
Seat 2: radiro - 89,920
Seat 3: laura888 - 9,096
Seat 4: d0mSki - 60,051
Seat 5: Tigerrr - 18,022
Seat 7: Mprior88 - 48,608
Seat 8: marlinman20 - 147,824
Seat 9: UNDEADELK - 168,072
Seat 10: flipkick - 3,560
Shuffling Deck
Moving Button to seat 5
LockeLamora posts ante of 600
radiro posts ante of 600
laura888 posts ante of 600
d0mSki posts ante of 600
Tigerrr posts ante of 600
Mprior88 posts ante of 600
marlinman20 posts ante of 600
UNDEADELK posts ante of 600
flipkick posts ante of 600
Pot sizes: 5,400
Mprior88 posts small blind (3,000)
marlinman20 posts big blind (6,000)
Dealing Cards
Dealing [A s][A h] to LockeLamora
UNDEADELK folds
flipkick folds
LockeLamora raises to 12,000
radiro folds
laura888 folds
d0mSki folds
Tigerrr folds
Mprior88 did not respond in time and is folded
Mprior88 folds
marlinman20 calls 12,000
Pot sizes: 32,400
Dealing Flop [K c][8 c][4 s]
marlinman20 checks
LockeLamora bets 16,200
marlinman20 raises to 38,555
LockeLamora has requested more time
LockeLamora is using the time bank
LockeLamora has 51 seconds remaining in the time bank
LockeLamora calls 38,555
Pot sizes: 109,510
Dealing Turn [A c]
marlinman20 checks
LockeLamora checks
Pot sizes: 109,510
Dealing River [K h]
marlinman20 checks
LockeLamora has requested more time
LockeLamora bets 54,755
marlinman20 calls 54,755
Pot sizes: 219,020
LockeLamora shows [A s][A h]
LockeLamora has Full House, Aces over Kings
marlinman20 mucks
LockeLamora wins 219,020 with: Full House, Aces over Kings
Seat 1: LockeLamora - 318,471
Seat 2: radiro - 89,320
Seat 3: laura888 - 8,496
Seat 4: d0mSki - 59,451
Seat 5: Tigerrr - 17,422
Seat 7: Mprior88 - 45,008
Seat 8: marlinman20 - 41,914
Seat 9: UNDEADELK - 167,472
Seat 10: flipkick - 2,960
End of Hand #2080551262
However having been reduced to 40k he gets an awesome run of cards to get back up to a decent stack. At the same time I took a couple of hits against short stacks. How anyone with a $16,000 profit on a site can then call with A 10o here... I have no idea.
Table #44918676 - Tournament #25797053 Table #6
Starting Hand #2080568985
Start time of hand: 12 May 2012 00:49:53
Last Hand #2080568536
Game Type: HOLD'EM
Limit Type: NO LIMIT
Table Type: TOURNAMENT
Money Type: TOURNAMENT CHIPS
Blinds are now 5,000 / 10,000
Button is at seat 7
Seat 1: LockeLamora - 180,738
Seat 2: radiro - 30,920
Seat 5: kabotajoe - 319,464
Seat 6: P1lgr1m - 114,550
Seat 8: marlinman20 - 413,486
Seat 9: UNDEADELK - 296,103
Seat 10: Haege - 72,858
Shuffling Deck
Moving Button to seat 8
LockeLamora posts ante of 1,000
radiro posts ante of 1,000
kabotajoe posts ante of 1,000
P1lgr1m posts ante of 1,000
marlinman20 posts ante of 1,000
UNDEADELK posts ante of 1,000
Haege posts ante of 1,000
Pot sizes: 7,000
UNDEADELK posts small blind (5,000)
Haege posts big blind (10,000)
Dealing Cards
Dealing [A c][Q h] to LockeLamora
Deliiight: sometimes?
ziggga0 brings 117,868 to table 44918676
ziggga0 has joined from Tournament Table #8
LockeLamora has requested more time
LockeLamora raises to 179,738 (all-in)
radiro folds
kabotajoe folds
Tigerrr: gl
P1lgr1m folds
Deliiight: glgl
marlinman20 raises to 412,486 (all-in)
kabotajoe: ye, most of the ntime my ego thinks they are just jealous haters
kabotajoe says good luck.
UNDEADELK folds
Haege folds
Returning 232,748 to marlinman20 uncalled
Pot sizes: 381,476
LockeLamora shows [A c][Q h]
marlinman20 shows [A s][T h]
Dealing Flop [T d][4 h][2 s]
Pot sizes: 381,476
Dealing Turn [2 h]
marlinman20: mehh that was dumb
Pot sizes: 381,476
Dealing River [4 d]
Pot sizes: 381,476
marlinman20 has Two Pairs: Tens, 4s
marlinman20 wins 381,476 with: Two Pairs: Tens, 4s
Seat 1: LockeLamora - 0
Seat 2: radiro - 29,920
Seat 3: ziggga0 - 117,868
Seat 5: kabotajoe - 318,464
Seat 6: P1lgr1m - 113,550
Seat 8: marlinman20 - 614,224
Seat 9: UNDEADELK - 290,103
Seat 10: Haege - 61,858
End of Hand #2080568985
My tournament volume has not been big this year and perhaps this was my biggest mistake. I'm probably down $700 on Stars. This new Opt-in thing on Sharkscope has got to the final death of it as a useful site.
My biggest mistake was trying to become more of a cash game grinder on sites offering high rakeback deals. They would have been awesome if I had a) Been running normally and b) I had a bigger roll to work from. Instead I didn't have enough to work with and ended up blowing up the deposits on two different sites. My game wasn't ready for the differences between PKR and Ipoker despite having put in some hands in the past. The truth is the game is altering year by year and if you want a 60% rakeback deal you have to now play on sites full of rakeback grinders who are nitty beyond belief. Maybe even bots on Ipoker as well, this is the first site I have ever suspected I was not playing a human being. I can honestly say I think I have seen more coolers in cash games in the last six months than in the previous last three years put together. If I have Kings they have Aces. If I have AK they have Aces or Kings. If I have a good hand they get there on the river with the only card in the deck that means I am willing to pay them off. I could have, and should have, played better. Even if I did though it still would have been a rough six months. I also have to question where cash games will be in a few years time online when you can find yourself sat at a $0.25/50 table with five other pro grinders. The fish are out there on Ipoker it just becomes a feeding frenzy whenever they sit down. The bigger fish seem to exist more at mid-stakes however without the roll to work from I didn't get many shots at them. I would put up a graph but I switched to HEM 2 a couple of months back and have struggled to get all the relevant data working properly in one place. I am getting some weird errors and may just have to abandon my current database and start a fresh one.
There will be no Vegas this year. Even this also has been a cruel and heartbreaking tale. I took part in a Team Challenge on Ladbrokes with PKR stalwarts ForFoxSake, Destacker and Lugfest. The first place team got 10,500 euro packages each, the second place team got 3,500 euro packages and the third place team got 750 euros worth of tickets for Ladbrokes online tournaments. Over six weeks and twelve tournaments we missed out on second by two points. The number of insanely bizarre bad beats involved in this happening defies belief.
Of course I could only manage 30 euros worth of cashes from my 750 euros in tickets. With my average ROI I would have expected to make back well over 1,100.
As part of this challenge I ground out the points to make Ladbrokes VIP player level. The cash games here were much softer than on Ipoker and much more like PKR. Unfortunately I still couldn't win a hand. I made VIP as there was a stunning 25,000 Euros added Vegas tournament for VIP players. Only forty-five people were in the tournament and there were eleven different Vegas packages on offer. Obviously I went out very early. Then on Sunday I went into the PKR Vegas Nights Freeroll with a top ten starting stack with three packages on offer and over 350 runners. I came fifth. With seven left I was the chip leader and in this case it was my own fault I didn't get there. I should have slowed down a bit but I had been bullying my way to the chip lead since it got down to the last twenty. I then misplayed one hand badly, the first hand all tournament. 2012 has just been harsh beyond belief.
I opened some pots and had to fold to three bets and I squeezed a half decent hand and had to fold to a ship. So when the key pot came up I was in three minds. I wasn't keen on flatting as bigbraine777 had been getting quite liberal in the cutoff so I favoured the three bet. However having had quite a bad image in the last few orbits I didn't like the idea of betting betting a quarter/fifth of my stack and having to fold to a ship. Whilst it was a pretty large spot to ship I just wanted to lay down a marker that I wasn't taking any more rubbish from people. Of course being a satellite it was just a bad idea. Raise folding would have been preferable. Against a random player this is how it probably would have played out but I have a lot of cash history with bigbraine and it just coloured my decision.
Table #45396564 - Tournament #26006448 Table #35
Starting Hand #2103115547
Start time of hand: 10 Jun 2012 22:25:39
Last Hand #2103114326
Game Type: HOLD'EM
Limit Type: NO LIMIT
Table Type: TOURNAMENT
Money Type: TOURNAMENT CHIPS
Blinds are now 1,000 / 2,000
Button is at seat 10
Seat 2: fiereske - 43,964
Seat 3: LockeLamora - 50,335
Seat 4: JennyDoom - 31,322
Seat 5: 1SmileyFace - 24,301
Seat 8: frezzergeezer - 34,850
Seat 9: MaKivar - 39,972
Seat 10: bigbraine777 - 47,556
Shuffling Deck
Moving Button to seat 2
fiereske posts ante of 200
LockeLamora posts ante of 200
JennyDoom posts ante of 200
1SmileyFace posts ante of 200
frezzergeezer posts ante of 200
MaKivar posts ante of 200
bigbraine777 posts ante of 200
Pot sizes: 1,400
LockeLamora posts small blind (1,000)
JennyDoom posts big blind (2,000)
Dealing Cards
Dealing [8 s][8 c] to LockeLamora
1SmileyFace folds
frezzergeezer folds
MaKivar folds
bigbraine777 raises to 4,125
fiereske folds
LockeLamora raises to 50,135 (all-in)
JennyDoom calls 31,122 (all-in)
bigbraine777 has requested more time
panasonyste: gl jenny
bigbraine777 calls 47,356 (all-in)
Returning 2,779 to LockeLamora uncalled
Pot sizes: 94,766
Pot sizes: 32,468
LockeLamora shows [8 s][8 c]
JennyDoom shows [K h][A d]
bigbraine777 shows [A c][A s]
Dealing Flop [6 h][5 c][T s]
11flushinator11: lolz
Weazel666: gl
Pot sizes: 94,766
Pot sizes: 32,468
Dealing Turn [T h]
Weazel666: wow
Pot sizes: 94,766
Pot sizes: 32,468
Dealing River [K s]
panasonyste: wow
Pot sizes: 94,766
Pot sizes: 32,468
LockeLamora has Two Pairs: Tens, 8s
bigbraine777 has Two Pairs: Aces, Tens
bigbraine777 wins 32,468 from side pot #1 with: Two Pairs: Aces, Tens
JennyDoom has Two Pairs: Kings, Tens
MaKivar: wow
bigbraine777 wins 94,766 with: Two Pairs: Aces, Tens
11flushinator11: what a blow
Seat 2: fiereske - 43,764
Seat 3: LockeLamora - 2,779
Seat 4: JennyDoom - 0
Seat 5: 1SmileyFace - 24,101
Seat 8: frezzergeezer - 34,650
Seat 9: MaKivar - 39,772
Seat 10: bigbraine777 - 127,234
End of Hand #2103115547
Of course I actually bounced back from that to a reasonable stack only to go out with A 8o v A 9o.
So I have screwed up. If I had stayed mostly on PKR I'm sure I would have recorded more positive results. If I had played less cash and more tournaments overall this year I'm sure I would be in a better place. Ultimately even though I could have played better I haven't played that badly and I have been victim to one of the most extreme runs of negative mathematical variance imaginable. The biggest problem was never having a big enough bank roll. When I went pro it was mostly because of a need to relocate from where I was working so the idea was to see how it went and take it from there. I got by for two years without ever being able to find the result that would give me the real sized roll I needed to play from.
When I think of all the near misses over the last two and a half years I want to headbutt the wall. Just one out several dozen hands where I lost with the best hand, or lost a flip at the wrong moment, could have made the difference to keep me going. In a number of cases one of those going right would have made me a substantial chunk of money. This is how small the margins are in poker. On some level I resent that I have dedicated seven years of my life to an activity that has not fully rewarded me for my efforts in the way that another activity might of. At the same time though I am glad that for once in my life I was not a coward and that I had a go. If I had just run averagely over the last few years and made a few less mistakes in key spots it could have been a glorious adventure. This is not me done with poker. I will be back. It will likely be a while before I can rebuild a meaningful roll and I have a personal deficit from the last six months that I want repayed before I can think about doing anything elaborate again. Poker is changing fast as well. Right now there is still money to be made but the greedy governments of the world risk pulling down the whole house of cards. I fear that the glory days of online poker have already been and gone. Maybe the national models will one day grow it more at a grass roots level and maybe sensible legislation will stitch the global player base back together. For now though I need a job again. In the current climate this in itself is a terrifying thought.
