Black Friday Take Two

Players often suggest that the Poker Gods, those malevolent higher powers that screw with our luck on a regular basis, have a sick since sense of humour.  They must have.  There is otherwise no explanation as to why everywhere has 'Black Friday' offers this weekend.  Whilst I was aware of the American Thanksgiving holiday I was oblivious that the 'Black Friday' moniker is used to mark the start of a traditional holiday sales period.  We are seven months on from poker's Black Friday and I honestly cannot imagine many American players feel like they have much to be thankful for.  Then to rub salt into the wound everywhere they look today will be those Black Friday offers.  To anyone with money trapped in the carcass of Full Tilt I think you could barely be more offensive if you took out a giant wad of cash and slapped them in the face with it before proceeding to 'rub it on your titties' in front of them.

It was pretty obvious that Black Friday was going to have repercussions for the online poker world but I don't think at the time anyone could have imagined just how far they would reach.  Most people with any sense knew that there was always a lurking possibility of the American Government taking action against US facing sites.  There was a reason that many sensible businesses had withdrawn from the market after the UIEGA legislation had been bought in (UIGEA WIKI).  Those businesses now stand to gain the most from their patience when the American market eventually reopens.

Pokerstars and Full Tilt built empires based on their decisions to stay in America.  Pokerstars will at the very least face a massive fine, maybe worse, but it seems unlikely that their position as the world's number one poker site will be threatened any time soon.  Their professionalism in making sure US players got all their money back won them a lot of fans.  Full Tilt on the other hand has become a pariah and managed to knock back the reputation of poker in a way that Ultimate Bet could have only dreamed of.  The revelations that have come out, and will continue to come out, about the financial mismanagement of such a huge business, are a truly chilling tale that suggests greater regulation will be an industry necessity in the future.  If you don't really understand what has been going on this article by my friend Snoopy explains it all very neatly: Full-Tilt-Story-Timeline . 

Black Friday has led to a lot of poker losers, some in obvious ways and others less so:

1) US players unable to play online - Full Tilt and Ultimate Bet money not returned to players so far.

2)  Howard Lederer and Chris Ferguson - Two of the previously most well respected players in the game may as well now be hiding out in a mountain in Afghanistan.  There is an awful lot of explaining to be done from the pair of them and then we might just stick them in prison as opposed to lynching them.  There have to be question marks hanging over many other big names regarding their involvement with Full Tilt as well.  More big reputations will likely be destroyed before the dust settles.

3) Televised poker - Commercial TV needs two things to make it happen, an audience and advertisers willing to sponsor programmes or buy up the advertising slots.  These have been boom times for poker TV but only because there were sites looking to sign up players through advertising.  Full Tilt and Pokerstars were the biggest purchasers of US TV advertising time, without them a lot of poker programming will not be renewed. Less TV means less people getting into the game.

4) The reputation of poker - After years of poker coming out of the smokey back rooms and positioning itself in the context of a televised sport this has done a huge amount of damage.  Many people who were burnt by Full Tilt will not likely trust their money to another site without greater reassurances and industry regulation.  Many people will happily associate poker with being illegal or being dodgy thanks to the money laundering actions of the US facing sites.  Some of poker's ambassadors have turned out to be huge crooks, it makes it difficult to get the important points about freedom, liberty and choice across when your spokesmen have been acting so irresponsibly.

5) US players at the WSOP - The World Series was not affected dramatically this year and may yet grow next year.  Either way if the US online market stays shut it will be to the benefit of European players and the detriment of American ones.  You can study all the theory you want but nothing compares to playing thousands of hands a week to improve your play, your understanding and your reading ability.  Without playing online the ability of those players unwilling to move abroad will stagnate.

6) Ancillary poker services - America was the biggest poker market.  Players who cannot play online will not be using training sites, they will not be purchasing tracking software or other add-ons.  It is no surprise that a lot in the poker Media, particularly in America, have been looking over their shoulders.  Like TV, without sites paying for adverts in your magazine, you may not be able to run your business.

It is not all doom and gloom but the skies do seem very cloudy right now.  Hopefully though today's Black Friday will give way to a sunnier Monday somewhere down the road.